Doll R, Peto R, Boreham J, Sutherland I
Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Harkness Building, Radcliffe Infirmary, Oxford OX2 6HE, UK.
Br J Cancer. 2005 Feb 14;92(3):426-9. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6602359.
A total of 34,439 male British doctors, who reported their smoking habits in November 1951, were followed, with periodic up date of changes in their habits, until death, emigration, censoring. or November 2001. Information was obtained about their mortality from 28 of the 30 types of cancer in men reviewed by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (no death was recorded from the other two). In all, 11 of the 13 types in men that the Agency classed as liable to be caused by smoking were significantly related to smoking and the findings for the other two, which caused only few deaths, suggested they might be. Of the 13 types in men for which the Agency found only sparse or inconsistent data and for which we had data, only two appeared to be possibly related (one positively, one negatively), and the 638 deaths for the summed group were clearly unrelated to smoking. Of the two types for which the Agency thought that the relationship with smoking might be due to bias or confounding, the findings for one (prostate cancer) tended to support the belief that smoking was unrelated, and those for the other (colorectal cancer) showed a weak relationship with smoking, which (in a small subset) could not be attributed to confounding with the consumption of alcohol.
1951年11月,共有34439名英国男性医生报告了他们的吸烟习惯,并对他们进行跟踪,定期更新其习惯变化情况,直至死亡、移民、被审查或到2001年11月。获取了他们在国际癌症研究机构审查的男性30种癌症中的28种癌症的死亡率信息(另外两种癌症未记录到死亡病例)。总体而言,该机构归类为可能由吸烟引起的男性13种癌症类型中的11种与吸烟显著相关,另外两种癌症导致的死亡人数很少,其结果表明它们可能与吸烟有关。在该机构仅发现少量或不一致数据而我们有数据的男性13种癌症类型中,只有两种似乎可能相关(一种呈正相关,一种呈负相关),汇总组的638例死亡显然与吸烟无关。在该机构认为与吸烟的关系可能是由于偏倚或混杂因素导致的两种癌症类型中,一种(前列腺癌)的结果倾向于支持吸烟无关的观点,另一种(结直肠癌)与吸烟呈弱相关,这(在一个小亚组中)不能归因于与饮酒的混杂。