Stainforth D A, Aina T, Christensen C, Collins M, Faull N, Frame D J, Kettleborough J A, Knight S, Martin A, Murphy J M, Piani C, Sexton D, Smith L A, Spicer R A, Thorpe A J, Allen M R
Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, UK.
Nature. 2005 Jan 27;433(7024):403-6. doi: 10.1038/nature03301.
The range of possibilities for future climate evolution needs to be taken into account when planning climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. This requires ensembles of multi-decadal simulations to assess both chaotic climate variability and model response uncertainty. Statistical estimates of model response uncertainty, based on observations of recent climate change, admit climate sensitivities--defined as the equilibrium response of global mean temperature to doubling levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide--substantially greater than 5 K. But such strong responses are not used in ranges for future climate change because they have not been seen in general circulation models. Here we present results from the 'climateprediction.net' experiment, the first multi-thousand-member grand ensemble of simulations using a general circulation model and thereby explicitly resolving regional details. We find model versions as realistic as other state-of-the-art climate models but with climate sensitivities ranging from less than 2 K to more than 11 K. Models with such extreme sensitivities are critical for the study of the full range of possible responses of the climate system to rising greenhouse gas levels, and for assessing the risks associated with specific targets for stabilizing these levels.
在规划气候变化缓解和适应策略时，需要考虑未来气候演变的可能性范围。这需要进行数十年的模拟集合，以评估气候的混沌变率和模型响应的不确定性。基于近期气候变化观测的模型响应不确定性的统计估计表明，气候敏感度（定义为全球平均温度对大气二氧化碳浓度翻倍的平衡响应）大幅高于5K。但未来气候变化的范围并未采用如此强烈的响应，因为在通用环流模型中尚未出现这种情况。在此，我们展示了“气候预测网”实验的结果，这是首次使用通用环流模型进行的数千成员大型模拟集合，从而明确解析了区域细节。我们发现，这些模型版本与其他最先进的气候模型一样逼真，但气候敏感度范围从低于2K到超过11K。具有如此极端敏感度的模型对于研究气候系统对温室气体水平上升的所有可能响应，以及评估与稳定这些水平的特定目标相关的风险至关重要。
