Evans S, Lewis H, Williamsen J, Evans H, Bohl W
NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Huntsville, AL 35812, USA.
Adv Space Res. 2004;34(5):1104-8. doi: 10.1016/j.asr.2003.01.014.
Orbital debris impacts on the International Space Station occur frequently. To date, none of the impacting particles has been large enough to penetrate manned pressurized volumes. We used the Manned Spacecraft Crew Survivability code to evaluate the risk to crew of penetrations of pressurized modules at two assembly stages: after Flight 1J, when the pressurized elements of Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module, are present, and after Flight 1E, when the European Columbus Module is present. Our code is a Monte-Carlo simulation of impacts on the Station that considers several potential event types that could lead to crew loss. Among the statistics tabulated by the program is the probability of death of one or more crew members in the event of a penetration, expressed as the risk factor, R. This risk factor is dependent on details of crew operations during both ordinary circumstances and decompression emergencies, as well as on details of internal module configurations. We conducted trade studies considering these procedure and configuration details to determine the bounds on R at the 1J and 1E stages in the assembly sequence. Here we compare the R-factor bounds, and procedures could that reduce R at these stages.
轨道碎片对国际空间站的撞击频繁发生。迄今为止，还没有任何撞击粒子大到足以穿透载人增压舱。我们使用载人航天器乘员生存能力代码，评估在两个组装阶段增压舱被穿透时乘员面临的风险：在第1J次飞行后，此时日本实验舱“希望号”的增压部件已安装；在第1E次飞行后，此时欧洲“哥伦布”舱已安装。我们的代码是对空间站撞击情况的蒙特卡洛模拟，考虑了几种可能导致乘员死亡的潜在事件类型。该程序列出的统计数据中包括穿透事件中一名或多名乘员死亡的概率，用风险因子R表示。这个风险因子取决于正常情况下和减压紧急情况下乘员操作的细节，以及舱内配置的细节。我们进行了权衡研究，考虑这些程序和配置细节，以确定组装序列中1J和1E阶段R的界限。在此我们比较R因子界限，以及在这些阶段可以降低R的程序。
