Dee Thomas S, Grabowski David C, Morrisey Michael A
Department of Economics, Swarthmore College, PA 19081, USA.
J Health Econ. 2005 May;24(3):571-89. doi: 10.1016/j.jhealeco.2004.09.013.
Over the last 8 years, nearly every state has introduced graduated driver licensing (GDL) for teens. These new licensing procedures require teen drivers to advance through distinct stages where they are subject to a variety of restrictions (e.g., adult supervision, daytime driving, passenger limits). In this study, we present evidence on whether these restrictions have been effective in reducing traffic fatalities among teens. These evaluations are based on state-by-year panel data from 1992 to 2002. We assess the reliability of our basic inferences in several ways including an examination of contemporaneous data for older cohorts who were not directly affected by these policies. Our results indicate that GDL regulations reduced traffic fatalities among 15-17-year-olds by at least 5.6%. We also find that the life-saving benefits of these regulations were plausibly related to their restrictiveness. And we find no evidence that these benefits were attenuated by an increase in fatality risks during the full-licensure period available to older teens.
在过去8年里，几乎每个州都针对青少年推出了分级驾照许可制度（GDL）。这些新的许可程序要求青少年驾驶员逐步通过不同阶段，在此期间他们要受到各种限制（例如，需有成人陪同、日间驾驶、乘客数量限制）。在本研究中，我们提供证据证明这些限制措施在减少青少年交通死亡事故方面是否有效。这些评估基于1992年至2002年的逐年州级面板数据。我们通过多种方式评估基本推断的可靠性，包括检查未直接受这些政策影响的年长群体的同期数据。我们的结果表明，分级驾照许可制度使15至17岁青少年的交通死亡事故至少减少了5.6%。我们还发现，这些规定带来的挽救生命的益处与其限制性似乎相关。而且我们没有发现证据表明，在年长青少年可获得的完整驾照许可期内死亡风险的增加会削弱这些益处。
