Sullivan C, Meigh J
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UK.
Water Sci Technol. 2005;51(5):69-78.
It is known that climate impacts can have significant effects on the environment, societies and economies. For human populations, climate change impacts can be devastating, giving rise to economic disruption and mass migration as agricultural systems fail, either through drought or floods. Such events impact significantly, not only where they happen, but also in the neighbouring areas. Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change needs to be assessed, so that adaptation strategies can be developed and populations can be protected. In this paper, we address the issue of vulnerability assessment through the use of an indicator approach, the climate vulnerability index (CVI). We show how this can overcome some of the difficulties of incommensurability associated with the combination of different types of data, and how the approach can be applied at a variety of scales. Through the development of nested index values, more reliable and robust coverage of large areas can be achieved, and we provide an indication of how this could be done. While further work is required to improve the methodology through wider application and component refinement, it seems likely that this approach will have useful application in the assessment of climate vulnerability. Through its application at sub-national and community scales, the CVI can help to identify those human populations most at risk from climate change impacts, and as a result, resources can be targeted towards those most in need.
众所周知,气候影响会对环境、社会和经济产生重大影响。对于人类而言,气候变化的影响可能是毁灭性的,会导致经济混乱和大规模移民,因为农业系统会因干旱或洪水而崩溃。此类事件不仅会对发生地产生重大影响,还会波及周边地区。需要评估对气候变化影响的脆弱性,以便制定适应策略并保护民众。在本文中,我们通过使用一种指标方法——气候脆弱性指数(CVI)来解决脆弱性评估问题。我们展示了它如何克服与不同类型数据组合相关的不可通约性难题,以及该方法如何在各种尺度上应用。通过开发嵌套指数值,可以更可靠、稳健地覆盖大面积区域,我们还给出了实现这一点的方法。虽然需要通过更广泛的应用和组件细化来进一步完善该方法,但这种方法似乎很可能在气候脆弱性评估中具有实用价值。通过在国家以下层面和社区尺度上的应用,CVI有助于识别那些最易受气候变化影响的人群,从而使资源能够针对最有需要的人群。