Barnett Tim P, Pierce David W, Achutarao Krishna M, Gleckler Peter J, Santer Benjamin D, Gregory Jonathan M, Washington Warren M
Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 0224, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
Science. 2005 Jul 8;309(5732):284-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1112418. Epub 2005 Jun 2.
A warming signal has penetrated into the world's oceans over the past 40 years. The signal is complex, with a vertical structure that varies widely by ocean; it cannot be explained by natural internal climate variability or solar and volcanic forcing, but is well simulated by two anthropogenically forced climate models. We conclude that it is of human origin, a conclusion robust to observational sampling and model differences. Changes in advection combine with surface forcing to give the overall warming pattern. The implications of this study suggest that society needs to seriously consider model predictions of future climate change.
在过去40年里，一个变暖信号已渗透到世界各大洋。该信号很复杂，其垂直结构因海洋不同而有很大差异；它无法用自然的内部气候变率或太阳及火山强迫来解释，但两个由人为强迫的气候模型对其进行了很好的模拟。我们得出结论，它源自人类活动，这一结论不受观测采样和模型差异的影响。平流变化与表面强迫共同作用，形成了整体的变暖模式。这项研究的意义表明，社会需要认真考虑未来气候变化的模型预测。
