Nicholls Robert J, Brown Sally, Goodwin Philip, Wahl Thomas, Lowe Jason, Solan Martin, Godbold Jasmin A, Haigh Ivan D, Lincke Daniel, Hinkel Jochen, Wolff Claudia, Merkens Jan-Ludolf
Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK
Faculty of Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2018 May 13;376(2119). doi: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0448.
The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
严格的气候稳定情景对沿海地区在减少影响/适应需求方面的有效性以及更广泛的政策影响很少受到关注。在此，我们使用“变暖、酸化和海平面预测地球系统模型”来计算到2300年全球海平面上升（SLR）和海洋pH值预测的大量集合，涵盖1.5°C和2.0°C稳定情景以及参考性的未减缓的RCP8.5情景。然后考虑这些预测对全球沿海洪水、小岛屿、三角洲、沿海城市和沿海生态的潜在后果。在这两种稳定情景下，全球平均海洋pH值（和温度）在一个世纪内趋于稳定。这意味着避免了重大的生态系统影响，但缺乏详细的量化，这反映了科学上的不确定性。相比之下，海平面上升只是减缓并持续到2300年（及以后）。因此，虽然气候稳定显著减少了海平面上升对沿海地区的影响，特别是在2100年之后，但潜在影响在几个世纪内仍在持续增加。在这两种稳定情景下，2300年的海平面上升超过了2100年未减缓情况下的海平面上升。因此，在气候稳定的情况下，适应对于人口密集和经济重要的沿海地区仍然至关重要。鉴于这将需要多个适应步骤，适应途径方法对沿海地区具有价值。本文是主题为“《巴黎协定》：理解升温至比工业化前水平高1.5°C的世界所面临的自然和社会挑战”这一特刊的一部分。
