Brewster M A, Kirby R S, Feild C R, Cunniff C M
University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences.
Public Health Rep. 1992 May-Jun;107(3):290-6.
Planning of service delivery systems for children with special health care needs would be enhanced by knowledge of numbers of cases anticipated in defined geographic areas. A method is described for predicting numbers of children who will likely have mental retardation sufficient to require special education services, based on the birth prevalence of birth defects and clinicians' estimates of the likelihood of mental retardation associated with each specific birth defect. This method is applied to the 1980-82 birth cohort of a 28-county area of south and central Arkansas, and it is compared with special education enrollment data for children ages 6 to 8 in academic year 1988-89. According to this estimate, children with birth defects may account for 32 to 56 percent of the cases of mental retardation among 6- to 8-year-olds reported by the public schools.
了解特定地理区域预期的病例数量，将有助于改进针对有特殊医疗需求儿童的服务提供系统规划。本文描述了一种预测方法，该方法基于出生缺陷的出生患病率以及临床医生对每种特定出生缺陷相关智力发育迟缓可能性的估计，来预测可能有足以需要特殊教育服务的智力发育迟缓儿童的数量。此方法应用于阿肯色州南部和中部28个县1980 - 1982年出生队列，并与1988 - 1989学年6至8岁儿童的特殊教育入学数据进行比较。根据这一估计，公立学校报告的6至8岁智力发育迟缓儿童病例中，出生缺陷儿童可能占32%至56%。
