Harper P R, Jones S K
School of Mathematics, University of Southampton, S017 1BJ, UK.
Health Care Manag Sci. 2005 May;8(2):101-9. doi: 10.1007/s10729-005-0393-7.
Colorectal cancer is a major cause of death for men and women in the Western world. When the cancer is detected through an awareness of the symptoms by a patient, typically it is at an advanced stage. It is possible to detect cancer at an early stage through screening and the marked differences in survival for early and late stages provide the incentive for the primary prevention or early detection of colorectal cancer. This paper considers mathematical models for colorectal cancer screening together with models for the treatment of patients. Illustrative results demonstrate that detailed attention to the processes involved in diseases, interventions and treatment enable us to combine data and expert knowledge from various sources. Thus a detailed operational model is a very useful tool in helping to make decisions about screening at national and local levels.
在西方世界,结直肠癌是男性和女性死亡的主要原因。当患者通过对症状的认知发现癌症时,通常已处于晚期。通过筛查有可能在早期发现癌症,而且早期和晚期生存率的显著差异为结直肠癌的一级预防或早期检测提供了动力。本文考虑了结直肠癌筛查的数学模型以及患者治疗模型。示例结果表明,对疾病、干预措施和治疗所涉及的过程给予详细关注,能使我们整合来自各种来源的数据和专业知识。因此,详细的操作模型是帮助在国家和地方层面做出筛查决策的非常有用的工具。