Massey D S, Singer A
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 19104-6298, USA.
Demography. 1995 May;32(2):203-13.
Using a new source of data, we estimate the probability of apprehension among Mexican migrants attempting to cross into the United States without documents. Over the period 1965-1989 we found an average apprehension probability of .35, confirming earlier estimates. We then applied annual probabilities to estimate the gross volume of undocumented Mexican migration and adjusted these figures to derive estimates of the net undocumented inflow.
利用一种新的数据来源，我们估算了试图非法穿越进入美国的墨西哥移民被逮捕的概率。在1965年至1989年期间，我们发现平均逮捕概率为0.35，证实了早期的估计。然后，我们运用年度概率来估算墨西哥非法移民的总量，并对这些数据进行调整，以得出非法移民净流入量的估计值。
