Casey V A, Dwyer J T, Coleman K A, Valadian I
School of Nutrition and Medical School, Tufts University, Medford, MA.
Am J Clin Nutr. 1992 Jul;56(1):14-8. doi: 10.1093/ajcn/56.1.14.
The tracking of body mass index (BMI) over a 50-y period in a longitudinal study was examined by using both correlation coefficients and the Foulkes-Davis tracking index. Over the long term, BMIs before maturity were poor predictors of middle-aged BMI status in females but were good predictors in males. The correlation between females' BMI in childhood and their BMIs at two points during middle age (40 and 50 y) was zero; in males it was r = 0.36 and 0.41, respectively. Between-age correlations were high (P less than 0.0001) for both sexes, reflecting stability in BMI over the shorter term (less than or equal to 10 y). The tracking of BMI (with the Foulkes-Davis tracking index) from childhood to middle age was better for males than for females (P less than 0.1). Linear-regression analysis was also used to assess the predictability of relative body size in middle age from earlier measures; BMI in childhood accounted for 0% of the variance in females and 17% in males. We conclude that the prediction of ponderosity in middle age from BMIs early in life is more reliable for males than for females.
在一项纵向研究中，通过使用相关系数和福克斯 - 戴维斯追踪指数，对50年期间体重指数（BMI）的追踪情况进行了研究。从长期来看，成熟前的BMI对中年女性的BMI状况预测能力较差，但对中年男性的预测能力较好。女性童年时期的BMI与她们中年时期（40岁和50岁）两个时间点的BMI之间的相关性为零；在男性中，相关性分别为r = 0.36和0.41。两性的年龄间相关性都很高（P小于0.0001），这反映了短期内（小于或等于10年）BMI的稳定性。从童年到中年，男性BMI的追踪情况（使用福克斯 - 戴维斯追踪指数）比女性更好（P小于0.1）。线性回归分析也用于评估根据早期测量来预测中年时相对体型的可预测性；童年时期的BMI在女性中占方差的0%，在男性中占17%。我们得出结论，从生命早期的BMI预测中年时的肥胖程度，对男性而言比女性更可靠。
