Oxford J S, Manuguerra C, Kistner O, Linde A, Kunze M, Lange W, Schweiger B, Spala G, Rebelo de Andrade H, Pérez Breña P R, Beytout J, Brydak L, Caraffa de Stefano D, Hungnes O, Kyncl J, Montomoli E, Gil de Miguel A, Vranckx R, Osterhaus A
Centre for Infectious Diseases, Retroscreen Virology Ltd, Bart's and The London, Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry, 327 Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK.
Vaccine. 2005 Nov 16;23(46-47):5440-9. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2004.10.053.
Sixteen EU scientists and doctors were interviewed about pandemic planning using psychometric methods applied to a scientific problem for the first time. Criticism was aimed at countries which have no plan whatsoever, the majority of nations. Many such countries have not invested in scientific infrastructure and public health. Amongst the 15 or so published pandemic plans a lack of detail was identified. Of particular need was investment into avian virus vaccine stocks (H1-15), prepared licenses of vaccine and pre purchase and agreed distribution, investment into stocks of antivirals, antibiotics and masks. Most but not all members of the group predicted a global outbreak within 5 years, most probably starting in SE Asia. However it was recognised that a pandemic could start anywhere in the world which had juxtaposition of young people, chickens, ducks and pigs. Mammalian cell culture production using wild type virus with the production factory at category III levels of security was exemplified. Antivirals would be essential to ameliorate the first wave of infection although significant quantities of cell grown vaccine could be produced if, as in 1918, 1957 and 1968 there is a long period between the first virus isolation and person to person spread. The wider scientific community is more energised than previously for very serious preparations to be in place way before the outbreak begins as this is a major public health problem, completely dwarfing concerns about bioterrorism.
16位欧盟科学家和医生接受了访谈，此次访谈首次运用心理测量方法来探讨大流行规划这一科学问题。批评矛头指向了绝大多数没有任何计划的国家。许多这样的国家没有在科学基础设施和公共卫生方面进行投资。在已公布的约15份大流行计划中，发现存在缺乏细节的问题。特别需要投资于禽流感病毒疫苗储备（H1 - 15）、准备好疫苗许可证以及预购和商定好分配事宜，投资于抗病毒药物、抗生素和口罩储备。该小组的大多数成员（但并非全部）预测在5年内会出现全球大爆发，最有可能始于东南亚。然而，人们认识到，只要有年轻人、鸡、鸭和猪并存的地方，世界上任何地方都可能引发大流行。文中举例说明了利用野生型病毒在具有III级安全水平的生产工厂进行哺乳动物细胞培养生产的情况。抗病毒药物对于缓解第一波感染至关重要，不过，如果像1918年、1957年和1968年那样，在首次病毒分离和人际传播之间有很长一段时间，就可以生产出大量细胞培养疫苗。由于这是一个重大的公共卫生问题，远超对生物恐怖主义的担忧，广大科学界比以往更加积极地准备在疫情爆发前就做好充分准备。
