Goldman Dana P, Shang Baoping, Bhattacharya Jayanta, Garber Alan M, Hurd Michael, Joyce Geoffrey F, Lakdawalla Darius N, Panis Constantijn, Shekelle Paul G
RAND, Santa Monica, CA, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2005;24 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):W5R5-17. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r5.
Recent innovations in biomedicine seem poised to revolutionize medical practice. At the same time, disease and disability are increasing among younger populations. This paper considers how these confluent trends will affect the elderly's health status and health care spending over the next thirty years. Because healthier people live longer, cumulative Medicare spending varies little with a beneficiary's disease and disability status upon entering Medicare. On the other hand, ten of the most promising medical technologies are forecast to increase spending greatly. It is unlikely that a "silver bullet" will emerge to both improve health and dramatically reduce medical spending.
生物医学领域的最新创新似乎即将彻底改变医疗实践。与此同时，疾病和残疾在年轻人群体中日益增加。本文探讨了这些共同趋势在未来三十年将如何影响老年人的健康状况和医疗保健支出。由于健康的人寿命更长，医疗保险的累计支出与参保人进入医疗保险时的疾病和残疾状况关系不大。另一方面，预计十种最有前景的医疗技术将大幅增加支出。不太可能出现既能改善健康又能大幅降低医疗支出的“万灵药”。
