Shekelle Paul G, Ortiz Eduardo, Newberry Sydne J, Rich Michael W, Rhodes Shannon L, Brook Robert H, Goldman Dana P
Evidence-Based Practice Center, RAND Health, Santa Monica, California, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2005;24 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):W5R67-76. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.w5.r67.
We used a method that combined literature review and expertjudgment to assess potential medical innovations for older adults. We evaluated innovations in four domains: cardiovascular disease, cancer, the biology of aging, and neurologic disease. The innovations can be categorized by common themes: improved disease prevention, better detection of subclinical or early clinical disease, and treatments for established disease. We report the likelihood, potential impact, and potential cost implications for thirty-four innovations, and we revisit this forecast five years later. Many of the innovations have the potential to greatly affect the costs and outcomes of health care.
我们采用了一种将文献综述与专家判断相结合的方法，以评估针对老年人的潜在医学创新。我们评估了四个领域的创新：心血管疾病、癌症、衰老生物学和神经疾病。这些创新可以按照共同主题进行分类：改进疾病预防、更好地检测亚临床或早期临床疾病以及对已确诊疾病的治疗。我们报告了34项创新的可能性、潜在影响和潜在成本影响，并在五年后重新审视了这一预测。许多创新有可能极大地影响医疗保健的成本和结果。
