Eaton W W, Mortensen P B, Herrman H, Freeman H, Bilker W, Burgess P, Wooff K
Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Dept. of Mental Hygiene, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Schizophr Bull. 1992;18(2):217-28. doi: 10.1093/schbul/18.2.217.
The probability of rehospitalization following the initial discharge on which a diagnosis of schizophrenia was made is described using data from psychiatric case registers in Victoria, Australia; Maryland, U.S.A.; Denmark; and Salford, England. The percentage eventually rehospitalized, after followup intervals as long as two decades, varies from about 50 to 80 percent in the four service systems. Survival curves for duration in the community without rehospitalization bend sharply in the period between 2 and 3 years following discharge in all four cohorts and are almost flat after 20 years. Early age of onset predicts higher risk for rehospitalization in multivariate proportional hazards models in each cohort. When age of onset is included as a covariate, neither gender nor marital status has consistent or statistically significant effects on risk for rehospitalization.
利用澳大利亚维多利亚州、美国马里兰州、丹麦以及英国索尔福德的精神病病例登记数据，描述了首次出院（确诊为精神分裂症）后再次住院的概率。在长达20年的随访期后，四个服务系统中最终再次住院的百分比在50%至80%之间。在所有四个队列中，出院后2至3年期间，未再次住院的社区生存曲线急剧弯曲，20年后几乎呈水平状。在每个队列的多变量比例风险模型中，发病年龄早预示着再次住院的风险更高。当将发病年龄作为协变量纳入时，性别和婚姻状况对再次住院风险均无一致或统计学上的显著影响。
