Khasnis Atul A, Nettleman Mary D
Department of Medicine, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48824-1313, USA.
Arch Med Res. 2005 Nov-Dec;36(6):689-96. doi: 10.1016/j.arcmed.2005.03.041.
Global warming has serious implications for all aspects of human life, including infectious diseases. The effect of global warming depends on the complex interaction between the human host population and the causative infectious agent. From the human standpoint, changes in the environment may trigger human migration, causing disease patterns to shift. Crop failures and famine may reduce host resistance to infections. Disease transmission may be enhanced through the scarcity and contamination of potable water sources. Importantly, significant economic and political stresses may damage the existing public health infrastructure, leaving mankind poorly prepared for unexpected epidemics. Global warming will certainly affect the abundance and distribution of disease vectors. Altitudes that are currently too cool to sustain vectors will become more conducive to them. Some vector populations may expand into new geographic areas, whereas others may disappear. Malaria, dengue, plague, and viruses causing encephalitic syndromes are among the many vector-borne diseases likely to be affected. Some models suggest that vector-borne diseases will become more common as the earth warms, although caution is needed in interpreting these predictions. Clearly, global warming will cause changes in the epidemiology of infectious diseases. The ability of mankind to react or adapt is dependent upon the magnitude and speed of the change. The outcome will also depend on our ability to recognize epidemics early, to contain them effectively, to provide appropriate treatment, and to commit resources to prevention and research.
全球变暖对人类生活的各个方面都有着严重影响，包括传染病。全球变暖的影响取决于人类宿主群体与致病性传染源之间复杂的相互作用。从人类的角度来看，环境变化可能引发人口迁移，导致疾病模式发生转变。作物歉收和饥荒可能会降低宿主对感染的抵抗力。饮用水源的短缺和污染可能会加剧疾病传播。重要的是，重大的经济和政治压力可能会破坏现有的公共卫生基础设施，使人类应对突发疫情的准备不足。全球变暖肯定会影响病媒的数量和分布。目前温度过低而无法维持病媒生存的海拔地区将变得更适宜它们生存。一些病媒种群可能会扩展到新的地理区域，而其他种群可能会消失。疟疾、登革热、鼠疫以及导致脑炎综合征的病毒等众多病媒传播疾病都可能受到影响。一些模型表明，随着地球变暖，病媒传播疾病将变得更加普遍，不过在解读这些预测时需要谨慎。显然，全球变暖将导致传染病流行病学发生变化。人类做出反应或适应的能力取决于变化的幅度和速度。结果还将取决于我们早期识别疫情、有效控制疫情、提供适当治疗以及投入资源进行预防和研究的能力。
