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气候变化与极端高温事件。

Climate change and extreme heat events.

作者信息

Luber George, McGeehin Michael

机构信息

National Center for Environmental Health, CDC, Atlanta, Georgia 30341-3717, USA.

出版信息

Am J Prev Med. 2008 Nov;35(5):429-35. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2008.08.021.

Abstract

The association between climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events is now well established. General circulation models of climate change predict that heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, especially in the higher latitudes, affecting large metropolitan areas that are not well adapted to them. Exposure to extreme heat is already a significant public health problem and the primary cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. This article reviews major epidemiologic risk factors associated with mortality from extreme heat exposure and discusses future drivers of heat-related mortality, including a warming climate, the urban heat island effect, and an aging population. In addition, it considers critical areas of an effective public health response including heat response plans, the use of remote sensing and GIS methodologies, and the importance of effective communications strategies.

摘要

气候变化与极端高温事件的频率和强度之间的关联现已得到充分证实。气候变化的一般环流模型预测,热浪将变得更加频繁和强烈,尤其是在高纬度地区,影响那些对热浪适应不佳的大型都市地区。暴露于极端高温之下已然是一个重大的公共卫生问题,并且是美国与天气相关死亡的主要原因。本文回顾了与极端高温暴露导致的死亡相关的主要流行病学风险因素,并讨论了与高温相关死亡的未来驱动因素,包括气候变暖、城市热岛效应和人口老龄化。此外,本文还考虑了有效公共卫生应对的关键领域,包括高温应对计划、遥感和地理信息系统方法的使用,以及有效沟通策略的重要性。

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