Regan Helen M, Colyvan Mark, Markovchick-Nicholls Lisa
Biology Department, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182-4614, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2006 Jul;80(2):167-76. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.09.004. Epub 2005 Dec 13.
Environmental management decisions typically lie at the interface of science and public policy. Consequently, these decisions involve a number of stakeholders with competing agendas and vested interests in the ultimate decision. In such cases, it is appropriate to adopt formal methods for consensus building to ensure transparent and repeatable decisions. In this paper, we use an environmental management case study to demonstrate the utility of a mathematical consensus convergence model in aggregating values (or weights) across groups. Consensus models are applicable when all parties agree to negotiate in order to resolve conflict. The advantage of this method is that it does not require that all members of the group reach agreement, often an impossible task in group decision making. Instead, it uses philosophical foundations in consensus building to aggregate group members' values in a way that guarantees convergence towards a single consensual value that summarizes the group position. We highlight current problems with ad hoc consensus and negotiation methods, provide justification for the adoption of formal consensus convergence models and compare the consensus convergence model with currently used methods for aggregating values across a group in a decision making context. The model provides a simple and transparent decision support tool for group decision making that is straightforward to implement.
环境管理决策通常处于科学与公共政策的交叉点。因此，这些决策涉及众多利益相关者，他们有着相互冲突的议程以及在最终决策中的既得利益。在这种情况下，采用正式的共识达成方法以确保决策的透明性和可重复性是恰当的。在本文中，我们通过一个环境管理案例研究来展示一种数学共识收敛模型在汇总不同群体的价值观（或权重）方面的效用。当所有各方都同意通过协商来解决冲突时，共识模型就适用。这种方法的优点在于它并不要求群体的所有成员都达成一致，而在群体决策中这往往是一项不可能完成的任务。相反，它利用共识达成过程中的哲学基础，以一种保证朝着一个总结群体立场的单一共识值收敛的方式汇总群体成员的价值观。我们强调了当前临时共识和协商方法存在的问题，为采用正式的共识收敛模型提供了理由，并在决策背景下将共识收敛模型与当前用于汇总群体价值观的方法进行了比较。该模型为群体决策提供了一个简单且透明的决策支持工具，易于实施。
