Department of Bioscience - Kalø, Aarhus University, Grenåvej 14, 8410, Rønde, Denmark.
Wetlands International, P.O. Box 471, 6700AL, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Ambio. 2022 Jan;51(1):209-225. doi: 10.1007/s13280-021-01539-5. Epub 2021 Mar 29.
Most European goose populations have increased exponentially, and this has increasingly brought them into conflict with human activities. To manage this conflict, we used multi-criteria decision analysis to help set population targets for a super-abundant population of greylag geese (Anser anser). We relied on expert elicitation to assess the consequences of varying goose abundance on nine ecological, economic, and societal objectives. Representatives from national governments and from non-governmental organizations then weighted the objectives based on their perceived relative importance, and we used a consensus-convergence model to reach stakeholder agreement on the tradeoffs among objectives. The preferred population targets for two management units represent about a 20% reduction from current abundances, which from a management perspective would require considerable effort above and beyond current population-control measures. We believe that multi-criteria decision analysis can provide a systematic and transparent framework for building consensus among diverse stakeholders in a wide array of human-wildlife conflicts.
大多数欧洲鹅种群呈指数级增长，这使得它们越来越多地与人类活动发生冲突。为了管理这种冲突，我们使用多准则决策分析来帮助设定过度繁殖的灰雁种群（Anser anser）的种群目标。我们依靠专家的启发来评估鹅数量变化对九个生态、经济和社会目标的影响。各国政府和非政府组织的代表根据其认为的相对重要性对目标进行加权，然后我们使用共识收敛模型在目标之间的权衡上达成利益相关者的一致意见。两个管理单元的首选种群目标比当前数量减少了约 20%，从管理角度来看，这需要在当前的种群控制措施之外付出相当大的努力。我们相信，多准则决策分析可以为在广泛的人与野生动物冲突中建立不同利益相关者之间的共识提供一个系统和透明的框架。
