Tam C C, Rodrigues L C, O'Brien S J, Hajat S
Environmental and Enteric Diseases Department, Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre, Health Protection Agency Centre for Infections, London, UK.
Epidemiol Infect. 2006 Feb;134(1):119-25. doi: 10.1017/S0950268805004899.
Campylobacter is the most common bacterial cause of gastroenteritis in England and Wales, with 45000 cases reported annually. Campylobacter incidence is highly seasonal; the consistent peak in late spring suggests a role for meteorological factors in the epidemiology of this organism. We investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and Campylobacter enteritis using time-series analysis to study short-term associations between temperature and number of Campylobacter reports adjusted for longer-term trend and seasonal patterns. We found a linear relationship between mean weekly temperature and reported Campylobacter enteritis, with a 1 degrees C rise corresponding to a 5% increase in the number of reports up to a threshold of 14 degrees C. There was no relationship outside this temperature range. Our findings provide evidence that ambient temperature influences Campylobacter incidence, and suggest that its effect is likely to be indirect, acting through other intermediate pathways.
弯曲杆菌是英格兰和威尔士肠胃炎最常见的细菌病因,每年报告的病例有45000例。弯曲杆菌发病率具有高度季节性;春末持续出现的高峰表明气象因素在这种微生物的流行病学中发挥了作用。我们使用时间序列分析研究环境温度与弯曲杆菌肠炎之间的关系,以研究温度与弯曲杆菌报告数量之间的短期关联,并对长期趋势和季节性模式进行了调整。我们发现平均每周温度与报告的弯曲杆菌肠炎之间存在线性关系,温度每升高1摄氏度,报告数量就会增加5%,直至达到14摄氏度的阈值。在此温度范围之外则没有关系。我们的研究结果提供了环境温度影响弯曲杆菌发病率的证据,并表明其影响可能是间接的,通过其他中间途径起作用。