Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Artillerivej 5, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Sci Rep. 2020 Aug 17;10(1):13874. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-70593-y.
Global climate change is predicted to alter precipitation and temperature patterns across the world, affecting a range of infectious diseases and particularly foodborne infections such as Campylobacter. In this study, we used national surveillance data to analyse the relationship between climate and campylobacteriosis in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and estimate the impact of climate changes on future disease patterns. We show that Campylobacter incidences are linked to increases in temperature and especially precipitation in the week before illness, suggesting a non-food transmission route. These four countries may experience a doubling of Campylobacter cases by the end of the 2080s, corresponding to around 6,000 excess cases per year caused only by climate changes. Considering the strong worldwide burden of campylobacteriosis, it is important to assess local and regional impacts of climate change in order to initiate timely public health management and adaptation strategies.
全球气候变化预计将改变世界各地的降水和温度模式，影响一系列传染病，特别是食源性病原体感染，如弯曲菌。在这项研究中，我们使用国家监测数据来分析丹麦、芬兰、挪威和瑞典的气候与弯曲菌病之间的关系，并估计气候变化对未来疾病模式的影响。我们表明，弯曲菌病的发病率与患病前一周的温度升高特别是降水增加有关，这表明存在非食物传播途径。到 2080 年代末，这四个国家的弯曲菌病病例可能会增加一倍，仅气候变化每年就会导致约 6000 例额外病例。考虑到弯曲菌病在全球的沉重负担，评估气候变化对当地和地区的影响以启动及时的公共卫生管理和适应战略非常重要。
