Stone Roger C, Meinke Holger
Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, 203 Tor Street, Toowoomba, Qld 4350, Australia.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2005 Nov 29;360(1463):2109-24. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1753.
Integrated, interdisciplinary crop performance forecasting systems, linked with appropriate decision and discussion support tools, could substantially improve operational decision making in agricultural management. Recent developments in connecting numerical weather prediction models and general circulation models with quantitative crop growth models offer the potential for development of integrated systems that incorporate components of long-term climate change. However, operational seasonal forecasting systems have little or no value unless they are able to change key management decisions. Changed decision making through incorporation of seasonal forecasting ultimately has to demonstrate improved long-term performance of the cropping enterprise. Simulation analyses conducted on specific production scenarios are especially useful in improving decisions, particularly if this is done in conjunction with development of decision-support systems and associated facilitated discussion groups. Improved management of the overall crop production system requires an interdisciplinary approach, where climate scientists, agricultural scientists and extension specialists are intimately linked with crop production managers in the development of targeted seasonal forecast systems. The same principle applies in developing improved operational management systems for commodity trading organizations, milling companies and agricultural marketing organizations. Application of seasonal forecast systems across the whole value chain in agricultural production offers considerable benefits in improving overall operational management of agricultural production.
集成的、跨学科的作物表现预测系统，与适当的决策和讨论支持工具相连接，能够显著改善农业管理中的运营决策。将数值天气预报模型和大气环流模型与定量作物生长模型相连接的最新进展，为开发纳入长期气候变化要素的集成系统提供了潜力。然而，除非能够改变关键管理决策，否则业务性季节预测系统几乎没有价值。通过纳入季节预测来改变决策最终必须证明能改善种植企业的长期表现。针对特定生产情景进行的模拟分析在改善决策方面特别有用，尤其是与决策支持系统及相关促进讨论小组的开发相结合时。改善整个作物生产系统的管理需要一种跨学科方法，即气候科学家、农业科学家和推广专家在开发有针对性的季节预测系统时与作物生产经理密切联系。同样的原则适用于为商品贸易组织、碾磨公司和农业营销组织开发改进的运营管理系统。在农业生产的整个价值链中应用季节预测系统，在改善农业生产的整体运营管理方面具有相当大的益处。
