Muris Peter, van der Heiden Simone
Institute of Psychology, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Burgemeester Oudlaan 50, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
J Anxiety Disord. 2006;20(2):252-61. doi: 10.1016/j.janxdis.2004.12.001. Epub 2005 Jan 26.
Probability bias refers to the phenomenon that high-anxious individuals estimate future negative events as far more likely to occur, and in particular to themselves, than low-anxious individuals. The present study further examined this cognitive bias in a sample of non-clinical children aged between 10 and 13 years. Participants completed a scale for measuring symptoms of DSM-defined anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder, and a modified version of the Subjective Probability Questionnaire in order to assess probability estimates of future negative and positive events. Results showed that children's anxiety and depression symptoms were positively associated with probability estimates of future negative events, but only when these events referred to children themselves. Further, when controlling for concurrent depression symptoms, anxiety remained significantly linked to probability ratings of self-referent negative events. When controlling for concurrent anxiety symptoms, depression was no longer linked to probability estimates of negative events. Finally, depression symptoms were negatively related to probability ratings for future positive events.
概率偏差是指高焦虑个体比低焦虑个体更倾向于估计未来负面事件发生的可能性，尤其是对自身而言。本研究进一步在10至13岁的非临床儿童样本中检验了这种认知偏差。参与者完成了一份用于测量DSM定义的焦虑症和重度抑郁症症状的量表，以及一份主观概率问卷的修改版，以评估对未来负面和正面事件的概率估计。结果表明，儿童的焦虑和抑郁症状与对未来负面事件的概率估计呈正相关，但仅限于这些事件涉及儿童自身时。此外，在控制同时出现的抑郁症状后，焦虑仍与自我参照负面事件的概率评分显著相关。在控制同时出现的焦虑症状后，抑郁不再与负面事件的概率估计相关。最后，抑郁症状与未来正面事件的概率评分呈负相关。
