Landsheer Johannes A, van Dijkum C
Department of Methodology and Statistics, Faculty of Social Sciences, Utrecht University, The Netherlands.
Adolescence. 2005 Winter;40(160):729-48.
This study of male and female adolescent delinquency trajectories focuses on the prediction of late adolescence delinquency, based on earlier delinquency and social support. In this 3-wave longitudinal survey, 270 Dutch adolescents (113 males and 157 females) ages 12 to 14, were followed for a period of 6 years. For males, the level of delinquent activity in late adolescence strongly depends on earlier delinquent activities (R2 = .33, p < .0005). In contrast, the level of female delinquency in late adolescence is far less predictable (R2 = .18, p < .001), and could not be predicted from delinquent activities during pre and early adolescence, while support from the mother during late adolescence was associated with reduced delinquency for females. Different models may be needed to explain the development of delinquency for males versus females.
这项关于男性和女性青少年犯罪轨迹的研究聚焦于基于早期犯罪行为和社会支持对青少年晚期犯罪行为的预测。在这项三波次的纵向调查中，270名年龄在12至14岁的荷兰青少年（113名男性和157名女性）被跟踪了6年。对于男性而言，青少年晚期的犯罪活动水平很大程度上取决于早期的犯罪活动（R2 = .33，p < .0005）。相比之下，青少年晚期女性的犯罪水平较难预测（R2 = .18，p < .001），且无法根据青春期前和青春期早期的犯罪活动进行预测，而青少年晚期母亲的支持与女性犯罪率的降低有关。可能需要不同的模型来解释男性和女性犯罪行为的发展。
