Brewer Neil, Wells Gary L
School of Psychology, Flinders University, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
J Exp Psychol Appl. 2006 Mar;12(1):11-30. doi: 10.1037/1076-898X.12.1.11.
Discriminating accurate from mistaken eyewitness identifications is a major issue facing criminal justice systems. This study examined whether eyewitness confidence assists such decisions under a variety of conditions using a confidence-accuracy (CA) calibration approach. Participants (N = 1,200) viewed a simulated crime and attempted 2 separate identifications from 8-person target-present or target-absent lineups. Confidence and accuracy were calibrated for choosers (but not nonchoosers) for both targets under all conditions. Lower overconfidence was associated with higher diagnosticity, lower target-absent base rates, and shorter identification latencies. Although researchers agree that courtroom expressions of confidence are uninformative, our findings indicate that confidence assessments obtained immediately after a positive identification can provide a useful guide for investigators about the likely accuracy of an identification.
区分准确与错误的目击证人指认是刑事司法系统面临的一个主要问题。本研究使用信心-准确性（CA）校准方法，考察了在各种条件下目击证人的信心是否有助于做出此类判断。参与者（N = 1200）观看了一段模拟犯罪视频，并尝试从8人组成的目标出现或目标未出现的阵容中进行2次独立指认。在所有条件下，对两个目标的选择者（而非未选择者）的信心和准确性进行了校准。较低的过度自信与较高的诊断性、较低的目标未出现基础率以及较短的指认潜伏期相关。尽管研究人员一致认为法庭上的信心表达并无信息价值，但我们的研究结果表明，在做出肯定指认后立即获得的信心评估可以为调查人员提供有关指认可能准确性的有用指导。
