Strunk Bradley C, Ginsburg Paul B, Banker Michelle I
Center for Studying Health System Change, USA.
Health Aff (Millwood). 2006 May-Jun;25(3):w141-9. doi: 10.1377/hlthaff.25.w141. Epub 2006 Mar 28.
This analysis examines how shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population, reflecting both the aging of the baby-boom generation and increased longevity, will affect demand for hospital inpatient services during the next ten years. Over that period, aging will drive about 0.74 percent annual growth in use of services. Aging's effect on inpatient demand varies by medical condition, with the highest rates of growth in services most used by elderly patients. Even for those services, however, aging is a much less important factor than local population trends and changing practice patterns attributable to advancing medical technology.
本分析考察了美国人口年龄分布的变化（这既反映了婴儿潮一代的老龄化，也反映了寿命的延长）将如何影响未来十年医院住院服务的需求。在这一时期，老龄化将推动服务使用量每年增长约0.74%。老龄化对住院需求的影响因医疗状况而异，老年患者最常使用的服务增长速度最高。然而，即使对于那些服务而言，老龄化与当地人口趋势以及由于医疗技术进步而不断变化的医疗实践模式相比，重要性要低得多。
