Pergams Oliver R W, Zaradic Patricia A
Department of Biological Sciences (MC 066), University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL 60607, USA.
J Environ Manage. 2006 Sep;80(4):387-93. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.02.001. Epub 2006 Mar 30.
After 50 years of steady increase, per capita visits to US national parks have declined since 1988. This decline, coincident with the rise in electronic entertainment media, may represent a shift in recreation choices with broader implications for the value placed on biodiversity conservation and environmentally responsible behavior. We compared the decline in per capita visits with a set of indicators representing alternate recreation choices and constraints. The Spearman correlation analyses found this decline in NPV to be significantly negatively correlated with several electronic entertainment indicators: hours of television, (rs=-0.743, P<0.001), video games (rs=-0.773, P<0.001), home movies (rs=-0.788, P<0.001), theatre attendance (rs=-0.587, P<0.025) and internet use (rs=-0.783, P<0.001). There were also significant negative correlations with oil prices (rs=-0.547, P<0.025), foreign travel (rs=-0.452, P<0.05), and Appalachian Trail hikers (rs=-0.785, P<0.001). Income was significantly positively correlated with foreign travel (rs=0.621, P<0.005) but negatively correlated with national park visits (rs=-0.697, P<0.005). There was no significant correlation of mean number of vacation days, indicating available vacation time is probably not a factor. Federal funding actually increased during this period, and so was rejected as a probable factor. Park capacity was rejected as limiting since both total overnight stays and visits at the seven most popular parks rose well into the mid-1990s. Aging of baby boomers was also rejected as they are only now reaching retirement age, and thus during the period of visitation decline were still of prime family vacation age. Multiple linear regression of four of the entertainment media variables as well as oil prices explains 97.5% of this recent decline (r=0.975, multiple r2=0.950, adjusted multiple r2=0.925, SE=0.015, F=37.800, P<0.0001). We may be seeing evidence of a fundamental shift away from people's appreciation of nature (biophilia, Wilson 1984) to 'videophilia,' which we here define as "the new human tendency to focus on sedentary activities involving electronic media." Such a shift would not bode well for the future of biodiversity conservation.
在经历了50年的稳步增长后，自1988年以来，美国国家公园的人均参观次数有所下降。这种下降与电子娱乐媒体的兴起同时出现，可能代表着娱乐选择的转变，对生物多样性保护和环境责任行为的重视具有更广泛的影响。我们将人均参观次数的下降与一组代表替代娱乐选择和限制因素的指标进行了比较。斯皮尔曼相关性分析发现，国家公园人均参观次数的下降与几个电子娱乐指标显著负相关：电视观看时长（rs = -0.743，P < 0.001）、电子游戏（rs = -0.773，P < 0.001）、家庭电影（rs = -0.788，P < 0.001）、剧院观影人数（rs = -0.587，P < 0.025）和互联网使用（rs = -0.783，P <0.001）。与油价（rs = -0.547，P < 0.025）、出国旅行（rs = -0.452，P < 0.05）以及阿巴拉契亚小径徒步旅行者人数（rs = -0.785，P < 0.001）也存在显著负相关。收入与出国旅行显著正相关（rs = 0.621，P < 0.005），但与国家公园参观次数负相关（rs = -0.697，P < 0.005）。平均休假天数没有显著相关性，这表明可利用的休假时间可能不是一个因素。在此期间，联邦资金实际上有所增加，因此被排除为可能的因素。公园容量也被排除为限制因素，因为直到20世纪90年代中期，七个最受欢迎公园的过夜停留总数和参观人数都在稳步上升。婴儿潮一代的老龄化也被排除，因为他们直到现在才达到退休年龄，因此在参观人数下降期间，他们仍处于家庭度假的黄金年龄。对四个娱乐媒体变量以及油价进行的多元线性回归解释了近期下降的97.5%（r = 0.975，复相关系数r2 = 0.950，调整后的复相关系数r2 = 0.925，标准误差SE = 0.015，F = 37.800，P < 0.0001）。我们可能正在看到一个根本性转变的证据，即从人们对自然的欣赏（亲生物性，威尔逊1984年）转向“视频ophilia”，我们在此将其定义为“人类专注于涉及电子媒体的久坐活动的新趋势”。这样的转变对生物多样性保护的未来而言并非好兆头。
