Palloni Alberto, McEniry Mary, Wong Rebeca, Peláez Martha
University of Wisconsin-Madison, USA.
J Aging Health. 2006 Apr;18(2):180-206. doi: 10.1177/0898264305285664.
This article introduces a conjecture and reviews partial evidence about peculiarities in the aging of populations in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) that may impact future elderly health status. Using Survey on Health and Well-Being of Elders data (SABE; n = 10,902), the authors estimated effects of early childhood conditions on adult diabetes and heart disease. Using Waaler-type surfaces, the authors obtained expected mortality risks for SABE and also U.S. elderly (Health and Retirement System, n = 12,527). Expected mortality risks using Waaler-type surfaces among elderly in LAC reflected excesses supporting our conjecture. There was partial evidence of a relation between various indicators of early childhood nutritional status (knee height, waist-to-hip ratio) and diabetes and even stronger evidence of a relation between rheumatic fever and adult heart disease. There is some evidence, albeit weak, to suggest that the conjecture regarding elderly health status' connection to early conditions has some merit.
本文介绍了一种猜想，并回顾了有关拉丁美洲和加勒比地区（LAC）人口老龄化特点的部分证据，这些特点可能会影响未来老年人的健康状况。作者利用老年人健康与幸福调查数据（SABE；n = 10902），估计了儿童早期状况对成人糖尿病和心脏病的影响。作者使用瓦勒尔型曲面，得出了SABE以及美国老年人（健康与退休系统，n = 12527）的预期死亡风险。拉丁美洲老年人中使用瓦勒尔型曲面得出的预期死亡风险反映出超额风险，支持了我们的猜想。有部分证据表明儿童早期营养状况的各种指标（膝高、腰臀比）与糖尿病之间存在关联，甚至有更强的证据表明风湿热与成人心脏病之间存在关联。有一些证据（尽管很微弱）表明，关于老年人健康状况与早期状况之间联系的猜想有一定价值。
