Petersen Mads Lyngby, Larsen Thommy
Environmental Assessment Institute, Gammel Kongevej 5, 1 floor, Copenhagen V., Denmark.
J Environ Manage. 2006 Oct;81(1):19-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2005.10.005. Epub 2006 Apr 17.
Radon is a radioactive gas that enters buildings and is known to cause lung cancer. Danish building regulation recommends simple remedial measures for radon levels between 200 and 400 Bqm(-3), and more effective methods for levels above 400 Bqm(-3). The Danish National Board of Health found that radon levels in 4.6% of the dwellings were above the reference level, and that the distribution of radon levels in Danish one-family houses is lognormal with a geometric mean of 57.7 Bqm(-3) and a geometric standard deviation of 2.28. The purpose of the paper is to present a cost-benefit analysis of a possible future governmental intervention against radon in existing Danish one-family houses. In other words, it seeks to answer the question: is it socio-economically worthwhile to avert lung cancer deaths by reducing radon levels in the most exposed dwellings? The results indicate that an intervention based on the anti-radon measures recommended by the Danish building regulation would, if implemented, avert less than 30 deaths each year. By comparison, a total of 300 people die from radon exposure annually in Denmark. The total costs exceed the valuated health benefits by euro 62 million (6% discount rate). It is concluded that it is not socio-economically favourable to reduce radon levels in existing Danish one-family houses. These results are based on a discount rate of 6%, a value of preventing a statistical fatality of euro 1.4 million, and a relatively high cost of remediation in Denmark compared to other countries. Based on the sensitivity analysis, the conclusion will be different if a discount rate of 4.3% or less is used, or if the value of preventing a statistical fatality is euro 2.54 million or higher, or if the cost of remediation is reduced.
氡是一种进入建筑物的放射性气体，已知会导致肺癌。丹麦建筑法规针对氡浓度在200至400贝克勒尔每立方米之间的情况推荐了简单的补救措施，而对于浓度高于400贝克勒尔每立方米的情况则推荐了更有效的方法。丹麦国家卫生局发现，4.6%的住宅氡浓度高于参考水平，且丹麦独栋房屋的氡浓度分布呈对数正态分布，几何平均值为57.7贝克勒尔每立方米，几何标准差为2.28。本文的目的是对丹麦未来可能针对现有独栋房屋中的氡进行的政府干预进行成本效益分析。换句话说，它试图回答这个问题：通过降低暴露最严重的住宅中的氡浓度来避免肺癌死亡在社会经济上是否值得？结果表明，基于丹麦建筑法规推荐的防氡措施进行的干预若实施，每年将避免不到30例死亡。相比之下，丹麦每年共有300人死于氡暴露。总成本超过评估的健康效益6200万欧元（贴现率为6%）。结论是，降低丹麦现有独栋房屋中的氡浓度在社会经济上并不有利。这些结果基于6%的贴现率、预防一例统计死亡的价值为140万欧元，以及与其他国家相比丹麦相对较高的补救成本。基于敏感性分析，如果使用4.3%或更低的贴现率，或者预防一例统计死亡的价值为254万欧元或更高，或者补救成本降低，结论将会不同。
