Lin Dapeng, Zhuo Weihai, Yao Yupeng, Qiang Ziqi, Chen Bo
School of Public Health, Fudan University, 130 Dong'an Road, Shanghai, 200032, China.
Institute of Radiation Medicine, Fudan University, 2094 Xietu Road, Shanghai, 200032, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Sep 25;9(10):e20425. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e20425. eCollection 2023 Oct.
Radon is the second leading risk factor for lung cancer after smoking. As a public policy, radon mitigation not only involves radon control technology or its cost-benefit analysis, but also includes the decision-making process of local governments. In this study, the evolutionary game theory was used to analyse the interaction between local governments and residents based on the subsidy of the central government. Considering the practical data in China, factors influencing the behaviour of local governments and residents were discussed using numerical simulations. The results indicated that radon mitigation is a fully government-promoted action; thus, its implementation largely depends on the subsidy of the central government and the share of radon control costs borne by the local government. The financial burden for both local governments and residents is a more important determinant than long-term health effects. The relatively poor local economic situation could limit the implementation of radon control. There would be a public policy paradox wherein cities or regions with higher radon risk would have lower willingness for radon control, mainly due to the significantly higher costs of radon control. This work provides reference data for decision-making to implement radon control and is expected to offer some suggestions for local governments.
氡是仅次于吸烟的第二大肺癌风险因素。作为一项公共政策，氡减排不仅涉及氡控制技术或其成本效益分析，还包括地方政府的决策过程。在本研究中，运用演化博弈理论基于中央政府的补贴来分析地方政府与居民之间的相互作用。结合中国的实际数据，通过数值模拟讨论了影响地方政府和居民行为的因素。结果表明，氡减排是一项完全由政府推动的行动；因此，其实施在很大程度上取决于中央政府的补贴以及地方政府承担的氡控制成本份额。地方政府和居民的财政负担是比长期健康影响更重要的决定因素。相对较差的地方经济状况可能会限制氡控制的实施。会出现一种公共政策悖论，即氡风险较高的城市或地区对氡控制的意愿较低，主要是因为氡控制成本显著更高。这项工作为实施氡控制的决策提供了参考数据，并有望为地方政府提供一些建议。
