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坦桑尼亚死因推断口头尸检程序的有效性

Validity of verbal autopsy procedures for determining cause of death in Tanzania.

作者信息

Setel Philip W, Whiting David R, Hemed Yusuf, Chandramohan Daniel, Wolfson Lara J, Alberti K G M M, Lopez Alan D

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology and MEASURE Evaluation, Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27516, USA.

出版信息

Trop Med Int Health. 2006 May;11(5):681-96. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2006.01603.x.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES

To validate verbal autopsy (VA) procedures for use in sample vital registration. Verbal autopsy is an important method for deriving cause-specific mortality estimates where disease burdens are greatest and routine cause-specific mortality data do not exist.

METHODS

Verbal autopsies and medical records (MR) were collected for 3123 deaths in the perinatal/neonatal period, post-neonatal <5 age group, and for ages of 5 years and over in Tanzania. Causes of death were assigned by physician panels using the International Classification of Disease, revision 10. Validity was measured by: cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF); sensitivity; specificity and positive predictive value. Medical record diagnoses were scored for degree of uncertainty, and sensitivity and specificity adjusted. Criteria for evaluating VA performance in generating true proportional mortality were applied.

RESULTS

Verbal autopsy produced accurate CSMFs for nine causes in different age groups: birth asphyxia; intrauterine complications; pneumonia; HIV/AIDS; malaria (adults); tuberculosis; cerebrovascular diseases; injuries and direct maternal causes. Results for 20 other causes approached the threshold for good performance.

CONCLUSIONS

Verbal autopsy reliably estimated CSMFs for diseases of public health importance in all age groups. Further validation is needed to assess reasons for lack of positive results for some conditions.

摘要

目的

验证用于抽样生命登记的口头尸检(VA)程序。口头尸检是在疾病负担最重且缺乏常规死因特异性死亡率数据的情况下得出死因特异性死亡率估计值的重要方法。

方法

收集了坦桑尼亚围产期/新生儿期、5岁以下儿童后期及5岁及以上人群3123例死亡的口头尸检结果和病历(MR)。由医生小组根据《国际疾病分类》第10版确定死因。通过以下指标衡量有效性:死因特异性死亡率分数(CSMF)、敏感性、特异性和阳性预测值。对病历诊断的不确定程度进行评分,并对敏感性和特异性进行调整。应用评估口头尸检在生成真实比例死亡率方面表现的标准。

结果

口头尸检得出了不同年龄组9种死因的准确CSMF:出生窒息;宫内并发症;肺炎;艾滋病毒/艾滋病;疟疾(成人);结核病;脑血管疾病;损伤和直接孕产妇死因。其他20种死因的结果接近良好表现的阈值。

结论

口头尸检可靠地估计了所有年龄组中具有公共卫生重要性疾病的CSMF。需要进一步验证以评估某些情况缺乏阳性结果的原因。

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