Woolhouse Mark E J, Haydon Daniel T, Antia Rustom
Centre for Infectious Diseases, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Veterinary Centre, Roslin, Midlothian, UK, EH25 9RG.
Trends Ecol Evol. 2005 May;20(5):238-44. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2005.02.009.
Novel pathogens continue to emerge in human, domestic animal, wildlife and plant populations, yet the population dynamics of this kind of biological invasion remain poorly understood. Here, we consider the epidemiological and evolutionary processes underlying the initial introduction and subsequent spread of a pathogen in a new host population, with special reference to pathogens that originate by jumping from one host species to another. We conclude that, although pathogen emergence is inherently unpredictable, emerging pathogens tend to share some common traits, and that directly transmitted RNA viruses might be the pathogens that are most likely to jump between host species.
新病原体不断在人类、家畜、野生动物和植物群体中出现,然而这种生物入侵的种群动态仍知之甚少。在此,我们考虑病原体在新宿主群体中初次引入及随后传播所涉及的流行病学和进化过程,特别提及那些通过从一个宿主物种跳到另一个宿主物种而产生的病原体。我们得出结论,尽管病原体的出现本质上是不可预测的,但新出现的病原体往往具有一些共同特征,并且直接传播的RNA病毒可能是最有可能在宿主物种间跳跃的病原体。