[Predicting gainful employment in a population sample of 4225 statutory pension insurance members covering a prognostic period of five years using a brief subjective prognostic employment scale (SPE Scale)].

PURPOSE

Vocational (dis-)ability is a key concept in social medicine. It plays a major role in the realm of statutory pension funds (e. g. appraisal of applications for early retirement) as well as in epidemiologic or rehabilitation research. In a former population-based survey reliability of a short scale assessing the subjective prognosis of gainful employment (SPE-Scale, range = 0 - 3) had been tested. We now wanted to explore whether the SPE-Scale allows a prediction of vocational outcomes (early retirement) in the population sample over longer periods of time.

METHODS

Statutory pension insurees from Luebeck and surroundings aged between 40 and 55 were surveyed by questionnaire in 1999/2000. For 4225 subjects (= 95% of the original cohort) we obtained the following outcome data from pension fund records: dates of any applications for early retirement and beginning of retirement, date of death. The follow-up period covers 4.75 years on average. During this period 323 applications for early retirement (= 7.6%) were filed, and 200 subjects (= 4.7%) actually retired.

RESULTS

First analysis including age and sex as covariates showed a threefold (SPE = 2) and eightfold (SPE = 3) risk of early retirement. Multivariate analysis (covariates: overall health status, number of chronic conditions, approved disability, subjective vocational ability, and length of sick leave measured at study onset) yielded a twofold risk of filing an application for early retirement (SPE = 3).

CONCLUSIONS

The SPE-Scale is an appropriate screening instrument for hazards regarding gainful employment. It also can be recommended for use in epidemiologic or rehabilitation surveys.