Eilstein D, Quoix Eacute, Hédelin G
Laboratoire d'épidémiologie et de santé publique, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg, Registre des cancers du Bas-Rhin, France.
Rev Mal Respir. 2006 Apr;23(2 Pt 1):117-25. doi: 10.1016/s0761-8425(06)71474-7.
In France lung cancer is the second most common cancer in men and the fourth most common in women. In the department of Bas-Rhin the incidence is increasing by 0.1% per annum in men and by 4.4% in women. The aim is to analyse and predict the trend of lung cancer incidence in Bas-Rhin from 1975 to 2014.
The incidence data from 1975 to 1999 were extracted from the Bas-Rhin cancer registry. Population estimates (2594 years) were made for the period 1975-2014. Predictions were based on a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.
Between 1975 and 1999 the incidence of lung cancer increased by 4.5% p.a. in women. In men it increased by 1.6% p.a. between 1975 and 1989 and then diminished. For the periods 2000-2004, 2005-2009 and 2010-2014 respectively the rates should reach 25.6, 32.9 and 42.8 per 100,000 in women and 117.5, 111.6 and 110.1 per 100,000 in men.
Increasing tobacco smoking among women and a reduction among men could be one of the reasons for the respective increasing and decreasing incidences.
在法国，肺癌是男性中第二常见的癌症，在女性中是第四常见的癌症。在下莱茵省，男性肺癌发病率每年增长0.1%，女性增长4.4%。目的是分析和预测1975年至2014年下莱茵省肺癌发病率的趋势。
1975年至1999年的发病率数据从下莱茵省癌症登记处提取。对1975年至2014年期间的人口估计（25至94岁）进行了统计。预测基于贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型。
1975年至1999年期间，女性肺癌发病率每年增长4.5%。男性在1975年至1989年期间每年增长1.6%，之后有所下降。在2000 - 2004年、2005 - 2009年和2010 - 2014年期间，女性发病率分别应达到每10万人25.6、32.9和42.8例，男性发病率分别应达到每10万人117.5、111.6和110.1例。
女性吸烟人数增加而男性吸烟人数减少可能是各自发病率上升和下降的原因之一。
