Temple University.
J Appl Behav Anal. 1994 Winter;27(4):607-17. doi: 10.1901/jaba.1994.27-607.
The effects of an alternative course of action on sustained escalation and persistence in the face of failure was investigated using a computerized stock investment task. Subjects invested in "stock" in two "markets" that yielded returns according to two-component multiple variable-interval schedules. Both markets yielded equal but intermittent return rates during the first phase. In the second phase, one market ceased to yield returns, while the return rate for the other market was unchanged. During the second phase, behavioral contrast effects were evident. Investing in the market that ceased to yield returns dropped precipitously, and investing in the unchanged market increased significantly. Although the behavior may be economically "irrational," it is predictable from the matching law and shows that interactions among a history of intermittent returns in a course of action, current return rate, and currently available alternative courses of action are important determinants of persisting in, or withdrawing from, a failing course of action.
采用计算机化股票投资任务，研究了替代行动方案对面对失败时持续升级和持续的影响。在两个“市场”中，主体投资于“股票”，这两个“市场”的回报根据两个组成部分的多变量间隔时间表产生。在第一阶段，两个市场的回报率相等但间歇性。在第二阶段，一个市场停止产生回报，而另一个市场的回报率保持不变。在第二阶段，出现了行为对比效应。投资于不再产生回报的市场急剧下降，而投资于不变的市场则显著增加。尽管这种行为在经济上可能是“不合理的”，但它可以根据匹配律进行预测，并且表明在行动过程中间歇性回报的历史、当前回报率以及当前可用的替代行动方案之间的相互作用是决定坚持或退出失败行动方案的重要决定因素。
