Eames Ken T D
Department of Zoology, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EJ, UK.
J Theor Biol. 2006 Nov 21;243(2):205-13. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.06.013. Epub 2006 Jun 20.
Models of epidemic spread that include partnership dynamics within the host population have demonstrated that finite length partnerships can limit the spread of pathogens. Here the influence of partnerships on strain competition is investigated. A simple epidemic and partnership formation model is used to demonstrate that, in contrast to standard epidemiological models, the constraint introduced by partnerships can influence the success of pathogen strains. When partnership turnover is slow, strains must have a long infectious period in order to persist, a requirement of much less importance when partnership turnover is rapid. By introducing a trade-off between transmission rate and infectious period it is shown that populations with different behaviours can favour different strains. Implications for control measures based on behavioural modifications are discussed, with such measures perhaps leading to the emergence of new strains.
包含宿主人群内伙伴关系动态的流行病传播模型已表明，有限时长的伙伴关系能够限制病原体的传播。在此，我们研究伙伴关系对毒株竞争的影响。一个简单的流行病和伙伴关系形成模型被用于证明，与标准流行病学模型不同，伙伴关系所带来的限制能够影响病原体毒株的成功传播。当伙伴关系更替缓慢时，毒株必须具备较长的传染期才能持续传播，而当伙伴关系更替迅速时，这一要求的重要性则大大降低。通过引入传播率与传染期之间的权衡，研究表明具有不同行为模式的人群可能会青睐不同的毒株。文中还讨论了基于行为改变的控制措施的影响，此类措施可能会导致新毒株的出现。
