Shynkaruk Jody M, Thompson Valerie A
University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Mem Cognit. 2006 Apr;34(3):619-32. doi: 10.3758/bf03193584.
In two experiments, we investigated the relationship between confidence and accuracy in syllogistic reasoning. Participants judged the validity of conclusions and provided confidence ratings twice for each problem: once quickly and again after further deliberation. Correlations between confidence and accuracy were small or nonexistent. In addition, confidence and accuracy were mediated by different variables. Confidence judgments appeared to reflect external cues, so that confidence was greater when the participants were allowed additional time to think about the problem, as well as when the conclusion was either believable or unbelievable, rather than neutral. In contrast, accuracy changed little as a function of the amount of time available and did not differ for believable and neutral problems. These data support a model in which initial decisions are made quickly, on the basis of heuristic cues, and analytic processes are used to justify or rationalize the earlier decision.
在两项实验中，我们研究了三段论推理中信心与准确性之间的关系。参与者判断结论的有效性，并针对每个问题两次给出信心评级：一次快速给出，在进一步思考后再给出一次。信心与准确性之间的相关性很小或不存在。此外，信心和准确性由不同变量介导。信心判断似乎反映了外部线索，因此当参与者被给予额外时间思考问题时，以及当结论可信或不可信而非中性时，信心会更强。相比之下，准确性随可用时间量的变化很小，并且对于可信和中性问题没有差异。这些数据支持了一个模型，即最初的决策是基于启发式线索快速做出的，然后使用分析过程来为早期决策进行辩护或使其合理化。
