Chapin F Stuart, Hoel Michael, Carpenter Steven R, Lubchenco Jane, Walker Brian, Callaghan Terry V, Folke Carl, Levin Simon A, Mäler Karl-Göran, Nilsson Christer, Barrett Scott, Berkes Fikret, Crépin Anne-Sophie, Danell Kjell, Rosswall Thomas, Starrett David, Xepapadeas Anastasios, Zimov Sergey A
Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks 99775, USA.
Ambio. 2006 Jun;35(4):198-202. doi: 10.1579/0044-7447(2006)35[198:braatm]2.0.co;2.
Unprecedented global changes caused by human actions challenge society's ability to sustain the desirable features of our planet. This requires proactive management of change to foster both resilience (sustaining those attributes that are important to society in the face of change) and adaptation (developing new socioecological configurations that function effectively under new conditions). The Arctic may be one of the last remaining opportunities to plan for change in a spatially extensive region where many of the ancestral ecological and social processes and feedbacks are still intact. If the feasibility of this strategy can be demonstrated in the Arctic, our improved understanding of the dynamics of change can be applied to regions with greater human modification. Conditions may now be ideal to implement policies to manage Arctic change because recent studies provide the essential scientific understanding, appropriate international institutions are in place, and Arctic nations have the wealth to institute necessary changes, if they choose to do so.
人类活动引发的前所未有的全球变化，对社会维持地球宜人特征的能力构成了挑战。这就需要对变化进行积极管理，以增强复原力（即在面对变化时维持对社会至关重要的那些属性）和适应性（开发在新条件下有效运作的新社会生态结构）。北极地区或许是在空间广阔区域规划应对变化的最后机会之一，在这片区域，许多原始的生态和社会过程及反馈机制依然完好无损。如果能在北极地区证明这一战略的可行性，我们对变化动态的深入理解就能应用于人类活动影响更大的地区。目前的条件或许非常适合实施管理北极变化的政策，因为近期的研究提供了必要的科学认识，已有合适的国际机构，而且北极国家如果选择这么做，有财力进行必要的变革。
