Chapin F Stuart, Lovecraft Amy L, Zavaleta Erika S, Nelson Joanna, Robards Martin D, Kofinas Gary P, Trainor Sarah F, Peterson Garry D, Huntington Henry P, Naylor Rosamond L
Institute of Arctic Biology and Department of Political Science, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Nov 7;103(45):16637-43. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0606955103. Epub 2006 Sep 28.
Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social-ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously.
人类活动正在改变许多决定生态和社会系统基本属性的因素。在一个许多关键过程控制都在发生定向变化的世界里，可持续性是一个现实的目标吗？为了解决这个问题，我们整合了几个不同的理论来源，以探讨定向变化的社会 - 生态系统中的可持续性，将这个框架应用于阿拉斯加内陆地区的气候变暖影响，并描述了一系列从这些分析中得出的政策策略。阿拉斯加内陆地区的气候变暖已经深刻影响了影响景观过程（气候调节和干扰扩散）和自然灾害的因素，但只是间接影响了诸如食物、水和木材等受到大多数管理关注的生态系统产品。气候变暖减少了生态系统提供的文化服务，导致了一些直接应对气候变暖原因的少数制度性回应，例如北极理事会的土著倡议。出现了四项广泛的政策策略：（i）在多尺度变化的背景下，通过学习和创新提高人类的适应性；（ii）通过加强负面（稳定）反馈来增加恢复力，这些反馈使系统免受变化影响，并通过生物、文化和经济多样性增加适应选择；（iii）通过加强将气候变暖的高纬度影响与其低纬度原因联系起来的机构来降低脆弱性；（iv）利用危机创造的机会，促进向新的、可能更有益的状态转变。每项策略都为社会带来好处，我们建议同时推行所有这些策略。
