Faergemann Christian, Lauritsen Jens M, Brink Ole, Stovring Henrik
Accident Analysis Group, Department of Orthopaedics, Odense University Hospital, Sdr. Boulevard 29, 5000 Odense C, Denmark.
Injury. 2008 Jan;39(1):121-7. doi: 10.1016/j.injury.2006.05.004. Epub 2006 Sep 1.
The aim of the study was to estimate the age and gender specific incidence rates of first time contact with an A&E Department and/or an Institute of Forensic Medicine due to violent victimisation in a Danish low-risk urban population and, secondly to estimate the corresponding lifetime risk of violence based upon these incidence rates.
All first time contacts of victims of violence with the A&E Department at Odense University Hospital and/or the Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Southern Denmark 1991-2002 were included. Based on estimated age and gender specific annual incidence rates of first time violence and on the survival rates of the background population, the lifetime risk was estimated assuming calendar time stationarity of incidence and survival rates.
The overall annual incidence rate of first time violence was 9.2 [95% CI: 9.0-9.4] per 1000 population/year for males and 2.6 [95% CI: 2.5-2.7] per 1000 population/year for females. The estimated lifetime risk was 0.440 [95% CI: 0.438-0.442] for males and 0.180 [95% CI: 0.178-0.181] for females. The highest cumulative risk for both males and females was in the age group 15-24 years, 0.192 [95% CI: 0.188-0.195] for males and 0.048 [95% CI: 0.046-0.051] for females.
The current study shows, that even in a country with a relatively low risk of violent victimisation a considerable part of the population over a lifetime will need medical assistance after violent victimisation.
本研究旨在估算丹麦低风险城市人口中因暴力受害首次前往急诊科和/或法医学研究所就诊的年龄和性别特异性发病率，其次根据这些发病率估算相应的终身暴力风险。
纳入1991年至2002年期间暴力受害者首次前往欧登塞大学医院急诊科和/或南丹麦大学法医学研究所就诊的所有病例。基于暴力首次发作的估计年龄和性别特异性年发病率以及背景人群的生存率，在发病率和生存率呈日历时间平稳性的假设下估算终身风险。
男性暴力首次发作的总体年发病率为每1000人口/年9.2 [95%可信区间：9.0 - 9.4]，女性为每1000人口/年2.6 [95%可信区间：2.5 - 2.7]。男性的估计终身风险为0.440 [95%可信区间：0.438 - 0.442]，女性为0.180 [95%可信区间：0.178 - 0.181]。男性和女性累积风险最高的年龄组均为15 - 24岁，男性为0.192 [95%可信区间：0.188 - 0.195]，女性为0.048 [95%可信区间：0.046 - 0.051]。
当前研究表明，即使在暴力受害风险相对较低的国家，相当一部分人口一生中在遭受暴力侵害后仍需要医疗援助。
