Cumming Geoff, Maillardet Robert
School of Psychological Science, La Trobe University, Melbourne, Australia.
Psychol Methods. 2006 Sep;11(3):217-27. doi: 10.1037/1082-989X.11.3.217.
Confidence intervals (CIs) give information about replication, but many researchers have misconceptions about this information. One problem is that the percentage of future replication means captured by a particular CI varies markedly, depending on where in relation to the population mean that CI falls. The authors investigated the distribution of this percentage for varsigma known and unknown, for various sample sizes, and for robust CIs. The distribution has strong negative skew: Most 95% CIs will capture around 90% or more of replication means, but some will capture a much lower proportion. On average, a 95% CI will include just 83.4% of future replication means. The authors present figures designed to assist understanding of what CIs say about replication, and they also extend the discussion to explain how p values give information about replication.
置信区间（CIs）提供了有关重复验证的信息，但许多研究人员对这些信息存在误解。一个问题是，特定置信区间所涵盖的未来重复验证均值的百分比差异很大，这取决于该置信区间相对于总体均值的位置。作者研究了已知和未知标准差、不同样本量以及稳健置信区间情况下该百分比的分布情况。该分布具有强烈的负偏态：大多数95%置信区间将涵盖约90%或更多的重复验证均值，但有些置信区间涵盖的比例会低得多。平均而言，95%置信区间仅会包含83.4%的未来重复验证均值。作者给出了一些图表，旨在帮助理解置信区间关于重复验证的含义，并且还进一步展开讨论，解释了p值如何提供有关重复验证的信息。
