Añel Juan A, Gimeno Luis, de la Torre Laura, Nieto Raquel
Facultad de Ciencias de Ourense, Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
Naturwissenschaften. 2006 Dec;93(12):603-9. doi: 10.1007/s00114-006-0147-5. Epub 2006 Sep 19.
Previous studies have identified the tropopause height (TH) as a promising fingerprint of climatic change. In the present paper, we report variations in TH for the Eurasian region over the period 1973-1998 and analyse the influence of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) on these variations. As previous studies indicate that the greatest increases in TH occur in the extratropics, we focused our attention on this area. We applied a set of homogenization procedures to radiosonde data and considered three different scenarios that take into account change points and the main volcanic eruptions over the study period. Our results demonstrate that the number of stations with positive TH trends is very sensitive to the quality of data and the methods used to remove inhomogeneities. Consequently, when change points were included in the analysis, the number of stations with positive trends decreased markedly. Furthermore, stratospheric NAM appears to control TH in stations located at latitudes higher than 55 degrees N.
以往的研究已将对流层顶高度（TH）确定为气候变化的一个有前景的标志。在本文中，我们报告了1973 - 1998年期间欧亚地区对流层顶高度的变化情况，并分析了北半球环状模（NAM）对这些变化的影响。正如以往研究表明对流层顶高度的最大增幅出现在温带地区，我们将注意力集中在了这一区域。我们对探空仪数据应用了一套均一化程序，并考虑了三种不同的情景，这些情景考虑了研究期间的变化点和主要火山喷发。我们的结果表明，对流层顶高度呈正趋势的站点数量对数据质量和用于消除不均匀性的方法非常敏感。因此，当在分析中纳入变化点时，呈正趋势的站点数量显著减少。此外，平流层北半球环状模似乎控制着位于北纬55度以上地区的站点的对流层顶高度。
