Tett SFB, Mitchell JFB, Parker DE, Allen MR
S. F. B. Tett, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. E. Parker, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK Meterological Office, London Road, Bracknell, Berkshire RG12 2SY, UK. M. R. Allen, Space Science Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot, OX11 0QX, UK.
Science. 1996 Nov 15;274(5290):1170-3. doi: 10.1126/science.274.5290.1170.
Recent work suggests a discernible human influence on climate. This finding is supported, with less restrictive assumptions than those used in earlier studies, by a 1961 through 1995 data set of radiosonde observations and by ensembles of coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations forced with changes in greenhouse gases, tropospheric sulfate aerosols, and stratospheric ozone. On balance, agreement between the simulations and observations is best for a combination of greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone forcing. The uncertainties remaining are due to imperfect knowledge of radiative forcing, natural climate variability, and errors in observations and model response.
近期的研究表明，人类活动对气候产生了明显影响。这一发现得到了支持，所采用的假设条件比早期研究的限制更少，其依据是1961年至1995年的无线电探空仪观测数据集，以及由温室气体、对流层硫酸盐气溶胶和平流层臭氧变化驱动的大气-海洋耦合模拟集合。总体而言，对于温室气体、气溶胶和臭氧强迫的综合作用，模拟结果与观测结果之间的一致性最佳。剩余的不确定性源于对辐射强迫的认识不足、自然气候变率以及观测和模型响应中的误差。
