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酒精税对肝硬化死亡率的影响。

The impact of alcohol taxation on liver cirrhosis mortality.

作者信息

Ponicki William R, Gruenewald Paul J

机构信息

Prevention Research Center, 1995 University Avenue, Suite 450, Berkeley, California 94704, USA.

出版信息

J Stud Alcohol. 2006 Nov;67(6):934-8. doi: 10.15288/jsa.2006.67.934.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of distilled spirits, wine, and beer taxes on cirrhosis mortality using a large-panel data set and statistical models that control for various other factors that may affect that mortality.

METHOD

The analyses were performed on a panel of 30 U.S. license states during the period 1971-1998 (N = 840 state-by-year observations). Exogenous measures included current and lagged versions of beverage taxes and income, as well as controls for states' age distribution, religion, race, health care availability, urbanity, tourism, and local bans on alcohol sales. Regression analyses were performed using random-effects models with corrections for serial autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity among states.

RESULTS

Cirrhosis rates were found to be significantly related to taxes on distilled spirits but not to taxation of wine and beer. Consistent results were found using different statistical models and model specifications.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with prior research, cirrhosis mortality in the United States appears more closely linked to consumption of distilled spirits than to that of other alcoholic beverages.

摘要

目的

本研究的目的是使用一个大型面板数据集和统计模型来调查蒸馏酒、葡萄酒和啤酒税对肝硬化死亡率的影响,该模型控制了可能影响该死亡率的各种其他因素。

方法

分析是在1971年至1998年期间对30个美国许可州的面板进行的(N = 840个州逐年观测值)。外生变量包括饮料税和收入的当前值和滞后值,以及对各州年龄分布、宗教、种族、医疗保健可及性、城市化程度、旅游业和当地酒精销售禁令的控制。使用随机效应模型进行回归分析,并对各州之间的序列自相关和异方差进行校正。

结果

发现肝硬化发病率与蒸馏酒税显著相关,但与葡萄酒和啤酒税无关。使用不同的统计模型和模型规格得到了一致的结果。

结论

与先前的研究一致,美国的肝硬化死亡率似乎与蒸馏酒的消费比与其他酒精饮料的消费联系更为紧密。

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