Department of Healthcare Information and Management, Ming Chuan University, Taoyuan, Taiwan.
J Community Health. 2011 Dec;36(6):986-91. doi: 10.1007/s10900-011-9398-y.
It is known that taxation on alcohol products may effectively reduce the alcohol consumption. However, whether alcohol taxation may lead to a decrease in alcohol attributed disease mortality (ADM) has been inclusively. We conducted this time-series analysis to assess the effect of alcohol tax policy intervention in 2002 on rate of ADM in Taiwan. Mortality data were retrieved from Taiwan's Death Registry. We employed the autoregression integrated moving average technique to examine secular patterns of quarterly rate of ADM in residents aged 15 or above between 1991 and 2007, and to determine whether alcohol tax policy intervention, imposed in January 2002, had affected the time trend in rate of ADM in subsequent years. We observed a statistically significant reduction in the rate of ADM following the implementation of alcohol tax policy for all sex- and age-specific segments of population. Further analyses revealed that the effect was most obvious in men aged 15-64 years, who showed an abrupt decline in AMD rate (10.9%) in the first quarter of 2002. For elderly men and women, the tax intervention was followed by a gradually declining trend of ADM, with a magnitude ranging from 0.53% per season (elderly women) to 0.63% per season (elderly men). This study demonstrated that alcohol taxation policy may pose favorite influences on the time trend of ADM rate in Taiwan, and such influence was most noteworthy in young and middle aged men.
已知对酒精产品征税可能有效地减少酒精消费。然而,对酒精征税是否会导致归因于酒精的疾病死亡率(ADM)下降,这一点尚无定论。我们进行了这项时间序列分析,以评估 2002 年酒精税收政策干预对台湾 ADM 率的影响。死亡率数据从台湾死亡登记处检索。我们采用自回归综合移动平均技术来检查 1991 年至 2007 年间 15 岁及以上居民每季度 ADM 率的季节性模式,并确定 2002 年 1 月实施的酒精税收政策干预是否影响了随后几年 ADM 率的时间趋势。我们观察到,在实施酒精税收政策后,所有性别和年龄特定人群的 ADM 率都出现了统计学上的显著下降。进一步的分析表明,该效果在 15-64 岁的男性中最为明显,他们在 2002 年第一季度 ADM 率急剧下降(10.9%)。对于老年男性和女性,税收干预后 ADM 呈逐渐下降趋势,幅度从每个季度 0.53%(老年女性)到每个季度 0.63%(老年男性)不等。本研究表明,酒精税收政策可能对台湾 ADM 率的时间趋势产生有利影响,这种影响在年轻和中年男性中最为显著。