A time-series analysis of alcohol tax policy in relation to mortality from alcohol attributed causes in Taiwan.

It is known that taxation on alcohol products may effectively reduce the alcohol consumption. However, whether alcohol taxation may lead to a decrease in alcohol attributed disease mortality (ADM) has been inclusively. We conducted this time-series analysis to assess the effect of alcohol tax policy intervention in 2002 on rate of ADM in Taiwan. Mortality data were retrieved from Taiwan's Death Registry. We employed the autoregression integrated moving average technique to examine secular patterns of quarterly rate of ADM in residents aged 15 or above between 1991 and 2007, and to determine whether alcohol tax policy intervention, imposed in January 2002, had affected the time trend in rate of ADM in subsequent years. We observed a statistically significant reduction in the rate of ADM following the implementation of alcohol tax policy for all sex- and age-specific segments of population. Further analyses revealed that the effect was most obvious in men aged 15-64 years, who showed an abrupt decline in AMD rate (10.9%) in the first quarter of 2002. For elderly men and women, the tax intervention was followed by a gradually declining trend of ADM, with a magnitude ranging from 0.53% per season (elderly women) to 0.63% per season (elderly men). This study demonstrated that alcohol taxation policy may pose favorite influences on the time trend of ADM rate in Taiwan, and such influence was most noteworthy in young and middle aged men.