Quinsey Vernon L, Jones G Brian, Book Angela S, Barr Kirsten N
Queen's University at Kingston, Canada.
J Interpers Violence. 2006 Dec;21(12):1539-65. doi: 10.1177/0886260506294238.
Staff ratings of 595 supervised forensic psychiatric patients on the Proximal Risk Factor Scale and the Problem Identification Checklist were completed monthly for an average of 33 months. During the follow-up, there were 265 incidents, 86 of which were violent. The average ratings, excluding those from the index month, differentiated patients who had incidents from those who did not. As well, the average ratings distinguished between individuals with and without incidents of a violent or sexual nature. There were significant increases in staff ratings in the months preceding the index incident month. Within-patient analyses showed that changes in dynamic risk scales comprising the best items for predicting incidents of any kind and violent or sexual incidents were strongly related to their respective outcomes and were significantly related to outcome in an independent sample. Changes in monthly staff ratings predict the imminent occurrence of antisocial and violent behaviors.
对595名受监管的法医精神病患者，每月使用近端风险因素量表和问题识别清单进行评分，平均持续33个月。在随访期间，共发生265起事件，其中86起为暴力事件。排除索引月的评分后，平均评分能够区分发生事件的患者和未发生事件的患者。此外，平均评分还能区分有暴力或性事件的个体和没有此类事件的个体。在索引事件月之前的几个月里，工作人员的评分显著增加。患者内部分析表明，动态风险量表的变化（包括预测任何类型事件以及暴力或性事件的最佳项目）与各自的结果密切相关，并且在独立样本中与结果显著相关。每月工作人员评分的变化可预测反社会和暴力行为的即将发生。
