Oxford J S, Lambkin R, Elliot A, Daniels R, Sefton A, Gill D
Retroscreen Virology Ltd., Centre for Infectious Diseases, Bart's and the London, Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry, 327 Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, United Kingdom.
Vaccine. 2006 Nov 10;24(44-46):6742-6. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.101. Epub 2006 Jun 16.
Re-analysis of the influenza pandemic of 1918 has given reassurance about a rather low reproductive number (R(o)), a prolonged herald wave of virus and that the skewed mortality towards the young adult could be a singularly unique event dependent upon previous infection history, perhaps not to be repeated in a future pandemic. Over 99% of those who contracted the virus survived, in spite of the absence of antivirals, vaccine and antibiotics for the secondary bacteria infections which probably accounted for one-third of the 50 million deaths. Therefore, in spite of a three-fold population increase since 1918 and 100 thousand plane journeys daily, judicious and careful planning together with a stockpile of antiviral drugs, oseltamivir, zanamivir and M2 blockers and a generic H5N1 vaccine, and application of hygiene would be expected to reduce mortality in a new pandemic, to figures significantly less than 1918.
对1918年流感大流行的重新分析让人放心的是，其繁殖数（Rₒ）相当低，病毒有一个持续时间较长的前导波，而且偏向于年轻成年人的高死亡率可能是一个独特的事件，取决于先前的感染史，未来大流行中可能不会再次出现。尽管没有抗病毒药物、疫苗以及用于治疗继发性细菌感染的抗生素（继发性细菌感染可能是导致5000万人死亡的三分之一原因），但感染该病毒的人中超过99%存活了下来。因此，尽管自1918年以来人口增长了三倍，且每天有10万次飞机旅行，但明智而谨慎的规划，储备抗病毒药物（如奥司他韦、扎那米韦和M2阻滞剂）以及一种通用的H5N1疫苗，并注重卫生，预计将在新的大流行中降低死亡率，使其显著低于1918年的数字。
