Miller Matthew, Hemenway David, Azrael Deborah
Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Soc Sci Med. 2007 Feb;64(3):656-64. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.09.024. Epub 2006 Oct 27.
Two of every three American homicide victims are killed with firearms, yet little is known about the role played by household firearms in homicide victimization. The present study is the first to examine the cross sectional association between household firearm ownership and homicide victimization across the 50 US states, by age and gender, using nationally representative state-level survey-based estimates of household firearm ownership. Household firearm prevalence for each of the 50 states was obtained from the 2001 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Homicide mortality data for each state were aggregated over the three-year study period, 2001-2003. Analyses controlled for state-level rates of aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, urbanization, per capita alcohol consumption, and a resource deprivation index (a construct that includes median family income, the percentage of families living beneath the poverty line, the Gini index of family income inequality, the percentage of the population that is black and the percentage of families headed by a single female parent). Multivariate analyses found that states with higher rates of household firearm ownership had significantly higher homicide victimization rates of men, women and children. The association between firearm prevalence and homicide victimization in our study was driven by gun-related homicide victimization rates; non-gun-related victimization rates were not significantly associated with rates of firearm ownership. Although causal inference is not warranted on the basis of the present study alone, our findings suggest that the household may be an important source of firearms used to kill men, women and children in the United States.
每三名美国凶杀案受害者中就有两人死于枪支,但人们对家用枪支在凶杀案中的作用知之甚少。本研究首次利用基于全国代表性州级调查的家用枪支拥有率估计数据,按年龄和性别考察美国50个州家用枪支拥有情况与凶杀案受害情况之间的横断面关联。50个州各自的家用枪支普及率数据来自2001年行为风险因素监测系统。每个州的凶杀案死亡率数据是2001年至2003年这三年研究期间的汇总数据。分析中控制了州一级的严重袭击、抢劫、失业率、城市化程度、人均酒精消费量以及一个资源匮乏指数(该指数包括家庭收入中位数、生活在贫困线以下家庭的百分比、家庭收入不平等的基尼指数、黑人人口百分比以及单亲家庭女性户主的百分比)。多变量分析发现,家用枪支拥有率较高的州,男性、女性和儿童的凶杀案受害率显著更高。我们研究中枪支普及率与凶杀案受害情况之间的关联是由与枪支相关的凶杀案受害率驱动的;与非枪支相关的受害率与枪支拥有率没有显著关联。虽然仅凭本研究无法得出因果推断,但我们的研究结果表明,家庭可能是美国用于杀害男性、女性和儿童的枪支的一个重要来源。