Predictors of permanent pacemaker implantation during the early postoperative period after valve surgery.

The ability to preoperatively identify patients who may require permanent pacemaker implantation is rather poorly understood. The aim of this study is to determine the current incidence of permanent pacing after valve surgery and to determine which factors place the heart valve patient at risk of requiring permanent pacemaker implantation. We audited the records of 2,392 consecutive adult patients who underwent cardiac valve surgical procedures by the same surgical team from 25 April 1998 through 31 March 2003. Of these, 118 patients (group A) required the postoperative implantation of permanent pacemakers during the same hospitalization; they were compared with 1,959 heart valve patients (group B) who did not require pacemaker placement. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that reoperations (odds ratio [OR], 8.23; P <0.001), longer cumulative cross-clamp times (OR, 5.9; P <0.001), multiple-valve surgical procedures (OR, 3.46; P <0.05), and absence of preoperative sinus rhythm (OR 2.52; P <0.001) were independent predictors of the need for permanent pacemaker implantation after valve surgery. These results suggest that patients who display these risk factors for arrhythmias that require permanent pacemaker implantation receive closer observation and advance counseling about the likelihood of such implantation.