College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2007 Mar 28;2(3):e331. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0000331.
The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases.
预计中度至重度降雨事件的频率会随着全球变暖而发生变化。在这里，我们表明这些水文变化可能对蚊子种群动态和蚊子传播疾病的速度产生深远的影响。我们开发了一个简单的模型，该模型将蚊子的繁殖周期视为对降雨频率强迫做出反应的相振荡器。该模型再现了观察到的蚊子种群动态，并表明蚊子传播疾病的传播速度可能对降雨频率敏感。这些发现表明，水文循环的变化，特别是中度至重度降雨事件的频率，可能对某些蚊子传播疾病的传播速度产生深远的影响。
